我国对外贸易对国内物价影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on the Imfluence of Foreign Trade on Domestic Prices

作　　者：卢孔标[1] 李亚培[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行海口中心支行,海南海口570105

出　　处：《河南金融管理干部学院学报》2007年第5期106-109,共4页Journal of Henan College of Financial Management Cadres

摘　　要：运用Granger因果检验方法,对国际贸易与我国国内通货膨胀的关系进行了验证。结果发现,进口价格波动对我国国内通货膨胀水平产生作用主要表现在改变生产厂商的生产要素价格或生产成本,最终表现为国内工业品出厂价格指数发生变化。但是由于我国原材料价格与工业品出厂价格以及居民消费价格指数之间的传导并不通畅,进口价格的直接影响被大大削弱。贸易收支顺差是我国外汇储备积累的重要来源,也是国内货币供应量增加的原因之一,但由于我国货币供应量变动与居民消费物价指数的变化并不一致,这一传导路径也不通畅。相反,通货膨胀的"总供给—总需求"传递路径却非常通畅,进出口贸易是影响国内物价波动的重要因素之一,需要密切关注。By applying Granger Reason Testing approaches, the relationship between international trade and domestic inflation is verified . The results have let out that the role of fluctuation of import prices are mainly on changing production factors prices or production costs and finally let out the workshop price index changes China let out of domestic indutrial products. But owing to the transmission between prices of raw materials and workshop price of domestic indutrial products and consumption prices index is not smooth, the direct influence of import prices is greatly impaired. Trade surplus is the important source of foreign exchange reserves, and it ＇s the main reason for money supply increase in China, but owing to disagreements of domestic money supply changes and consumption prices index changes, This transmission path is not so smooth. Otherwise, the transmission of ＂General supply - general demand ＂ of inflation is so smooth, import and export trade is one of the reasons for prices changes, which deserves great concern.

关 键 词：全球化 国际贸易 通货膨胀 传导路径 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F726[经济管理—产业经济]