人民币名义汇率与利率的互动关系研究  

Study on the Correlation between RMB Nominal Exchange Rate and Nominal Interest Rate

作　　者：王爱俭[1] 林楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学金融学院,邮政编码300222

出　　处：《经济研究》2007年第10期56-67,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70373061);天津市科技发展战略研究计划项目"滨海新区金融创新与人民币国际化研究";普通高校人文社会科学重点学科建设经费资助成果之一

摘　　要：伴随着我国金融业全面开放、人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,人民币汇率与利率的互动关系研究越发重要。本文基于名义汇率与名义利率坐标空间的理论分析表明:(1)有管理浮动汇率制有助于实现经济系统向内外均衡理想状态靠拢;(2)适当推行资本账户管制放松政策符合市场经济改革要求;(3)维持汇率稳定的外汇市场干预政策会导致外汇储备非均衡,并使经济系统远离均衡。运用协整分析与向量自回归模型,本文实证考察了人民币名义汇率与利率的互动关系。通过理论与实证研究,我们发现人民币名义汇率与利率之间存在交替互动关系,表现为两者各自做出"盘整—上升—盘整—下降—盘整"的反应,并且当一方存在明显的上升或下降趋势时另一方处于调整状态。本文进而指出应充分尊重市场力量的自发作用,建立利率政策与汇率政策协调机制,促进宏观经济向内外均衡靠拢。With Chinese financial opening and RMB internationalization carrying on, the study on the correlation between RMB exchange rate and interest rate is more important. This paper gives a framework which shows that （1） managed floating exchange rate regime is good for realizing internal and external equilibrium, （2） capital account liberalization is needed, and that （3） foreign exchange interventions for maintaining exchange rate make economy go wide of equilibrium. With the help of theoretical and empirical methodology analysis, the paper finds that there is some alternate recurrent linkage between RMB nominal exchange rate and interest rate. Both of them have ＂adjustment-increase-adjustment-decrease-adjustment＂ responses and when one is increase or decrease, the other is in adjustment. The paper points out that we should respect the spontaneous action of market forces when the macro-economy does some adjustments to come to its internal and external equilibrium. And we should harmonize the RMB exchange rate policy and interest rate policy.

关 键 词：名义汇率 名义利率 资本流动 外汇储备非均衡 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F224