PRECIS对华南地区气候模拟能力的验证  

Validating PRECIS' Capacity of Simulating Present Climate over South China

作　　者：许吟隆[1] 黄晓莹[2] 张勇[1] 温之平[3] 黎伟标[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]广州中心气象台,广东广州510080 [3]中山大学大气科学系,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第5期93-97,共5页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家科技攻关基金资助项目(2004BA611B02);中英气候变化合作研究基金资助项目

摘　　要：分别采用ECMWF 1979-1993再分析数据作为准观测边界条件和由HadAM3P模拟的大尺度场驱动英国Hadley气候预测和研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS,将华南地区的模拟结果与实测资料进行比较,验证PRECIS对华南地区区域气候的模拟能力,并检验GCM模拟的大尺度边界场的误差对PRECIS模拟能力的影响。结果显示PRECIS模拟的年平均气温、降水的区域分布和频率分布与实测数据均有较好的一致性,气温的相关系数为0.95,降水超过0.6。通过统计学方法的分析,表明PRECIS能较好的模拟出华南地区气候的周期变化和时空特征分布。通过比较分析GCM模拟的大尺度场作为边界条件驱动PRECIS的模拟结果,显示GCM产生的边界值的偏差对PRECIS的模拟效果没有明显的影响。To validate PRECIS＇ capability of simulating present climate over South China, 15-year （ 1979 - 1993 ） ECMWF reanalysis data were used as quasi-observational boundaries to drive PRECIS （ Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）, which is developed in the Hadley Climate Centre. It is shown from the analyses that the overall spatial distribution characteristics and occurrence frequency of simulated surface air temperature and precipitation are similar with the observation. The correlation coefficients of simulation and observation were 0. 95 for surface air temperature, and above 0.6 for precipitation. It is also found that the simulated surface air temperature and precipitation have almost the same maximum power spectrum with the observation. Employing the large-scale baseline （1961 - 1990 ） field simulated by HadAM3P to drive PRECIS, the analyses showed that the bias of the GCM boundaries had not obvious impacts on PRECIS＇ capability of simulating present climate over South China.

关 键 词：PRECIS 华南地区 模式验证 气温 降水 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]