青海东部气候变化及其对农牧业生产的影响  

Change and Effect on Climate to Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in East of Qinghai

作　　者：时兴合[1] 汪青春[1] 赵燕宁[2] 马占良[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,西宁810001 [2]青海省气象台,西宁810001

出　　处：《青海农林科技》2007年第4期51-57,共7页Science and Technology of Qinghai Agriculture and Forestry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40465002);自然科学基金重大项目(40599424)的共同资助

摘　　要：利用1959～2004年青海东部11个气象台站气温、降水等地面气象资料，建立了气象要素的年、季序列，用气候诊断方法对干旱变化的成因以及对农牧业生产的影响进行了初步分析。结果表明；青海东部90年代四季平均气温比60或80年代平均偏高了0．3—0．5℃，冬季增温比较显著，这和中国北方地区的偏暖趋势比较一致。90年代该地区春、秋季降水量减少，导致土壤水分下降，河水的径流明显减少，农作物生长季干旱发生的频次增加，危害程度加重。气候变暖将有利于冬小麦的正常越冬和安全返青，同时也将导致农牧业供水矛盾加剧、晚霜冻和病虫害危害程度的加重以及夏季洪涝、高温热浪灾害发生的频次增加。及时掌握气候变化的信息，加快农业种植结构的调整，是农业适应气候变化的重要手段之一。Alignment of years and seasons were established by weather data of air temperature, precipitaion etc ground climate data of 11 meteorological stations in the east region of Qinghai from 1959 to 2004. The reasons of climate change and its effect to agriculture and animal husbandty were analyzed primary with the methods of climate diagnose. The results showed the average air temperture of four seasons are more 0.3 - 0.5 ℃ at 90 years than 60 years or 80 years in the east of Qinghai. It is considered warm up in winter is significant. They are the same situations with the tendency of warmth in north of China Soil moisture decreased, rivers runoff decreased, droughts occurrence of frequency more during farm crops growth by precipitation decreed during spring and autumn in 90 years. It is very useful for winter wheat living through the winter and turn green, and contradictions of water between agriculture and animal husbandry will be strengthened, late frost, plant disease and insect, floods and hot. waves in summer will be happened frequently because of climate changed warmer. It is an importance means of suitable climate change to learn information of climate change, quicken adjust agricultural structure.

关 键 词：气候 变化 影响 青海东部 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]