基于跨断层形变异常预测云南地震的试验  

SCIENTIFIC TEST FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN YUNNAN BASED ON FAULT-CROSSING DEFORMATION ANOMALY

作　　者：施顺英[1] 张燕[1] 吴云[1] 安利[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震研究所 [2]云南省地震局,昆明650204

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2007年第5期82-87,共6页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：地震科学联合基金(A07032)

摘　　要：利用云南地区的跨断层形变观测资料,按动态灰箱法提取长趋势异常和突跳异常,再用蕴震系统信息合成方法进行合成,以达到群体异常的信息增益(即提高异常识别的可靠性)。在此基础上,对12年来利用跨断层短水准和短基线观测资料所做的地震预测与实际发生地震的情况进行了检验。结果表明,年度预测准确率可达60%,证明基于跨断层形变测量异常的动态灰箱法与蕴震系统信息合成法是预测地震的有效方法。On the basis of the fault-crossing deformation observations in Yunnan area,long trend anomalies and sudden change anomalies are extracted from fault-crossing deformation data with mobile black box method and then they are synthesized with ISSS （Information Synthesis of Seismogenic System） to get credible anomaly. The exact ratio of prediction is 60% by checking the earthquake prediction based on fault-crossing short leveling and short base- line with the occurred earthquakes in the past 12 years. It shows that the mobile black box method and ISSS are feasible to predict earthquake.

关 键 词：断层形变异常 断层网络系统 信息合成 异常判别 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.725[天文地球—地震学]