美国次级按揭市场的现状及其深远影响  

Latest Development of U.S.Sub-prime Mortgage Market and it's Implication for China

作　　者：钟伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学金融研究中心

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2007年第11期28-33,共6页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：美国次级按揭问题对全球造成了深远影响。本文认为,第一,美国次级按揭和优质债市场、及Alt-A市场彼此糅合在一起,因此美国面临的是全部按揭贷款的问题,可能会给美国私人部门的消费和美国经济带来中期冲击。第二,次级按揭问题的主要受损者是美国和欧洲。在美国本土受损者既包括对冲基金等覆盖富裕群体的基金,也覆盖诸多州政府的养老、医疗等公共基金;在欧洲,受损者主要是公共基金和银行业。第三,次级按揭可能导致美元利率和汇率最终双双向下、全球流动性过剩格局的逆转和欧美经济的中期调整,对我国而言,可能带来贸易受益和汇率受损的格局,贸易受益是指全球初级产品价格的回落,以及美国消费者受困房贷问题,更多地需要和容忍中国商品;汇率受损是指美国需要美元的进一步疲软和更多的资本回流,这不可避免地会加大人民币升值压力。Sub-prime mortgage brings profound impact to the global financial architecture, firstly, the prime, sub-prime and alt-a mortgage are synthesized together therefore the rise in delinquency rate will decrease the consumption of private sector. Secondly, since the investors of the U.S MBS includes banks, asset managers, pension funds and hedge funds, the fluctuation of mortgage delinquency rate will threaten the financial stability in the EU and the U.S. Thirdly, the burst of sub-prime mortgage crisis will finally lead to a lower Federal Reserve rate and weaker dollar, a gradual reverse of global over-liquidity. We conclude that such trends make the U.S tolerate the Sino-US trade imbalance and seek more efficient ways for dollar recycling, the pressure for a faster appreciating procedure of RMB＇s exchange rate is to be rising.

关 键 词：次级按揭 流动性过剩 对冲基金 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]