基于贝叶斯网络的扰动后预想事故分析方法  

Predictive Contingency Analysis Based on the Bayesian Network After Initial Disturbance

作　　者：丁剑[1] 白晓民[1] 方竹[1] 李再华[1] 周子冠[1] 方陟亨 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京市100085 [2]娄底电业局,湖南省娄底市417000

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2007年第20期1-5,11,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217904)~~

摘　　要：针对连锁故障影响因素复杂、演变过程随机及故障组合多样的分析难点,在分析和总结连锁故障发生、发展过程及其特点的基础之上,抽取初始扰动后的潮流转移过程作为研究重点,建立了能在不确定性环境下进行概率推理并具有良好可扩展性的贝叶斯网络相继开断模型,同时考虑继电保护隐藏故障的线性概率模型,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的扰动后预想事故分析方法,以量化分析线路过载和保护装置的动作行为对连锁故障发展过程的影响。该方法抓住了连锁故障防控的有效阶段及本质特征并简化了分析的复杂度,为特定扰动下的具体故障发展模式研究提供了快速分析手段。算例结果表明模型合理、方法有效,具有在线应用的前景。The difficulty of cascading failure analysis lies in its dynamic process which varies from the slow progression of line overloads to extremely fast cases involving system-wide instabilities as well as other various factors.In order to tackle the problem,the predictive contingency analysis method based on the Bayesian network is introduced in this paper.Based on the study of the development and characteristics of cascading failure,the power flow redistribution process after the initial disturbance is selected to be the focus of the study.With the linear probability characteristic of protection hidden failure taken into account,the cascading failure analysis model based on the Bayesian network is established for uncertainty reasoning.The method proposed is superior both in analyzing effectiveness and in model simplification to existing methods.The results of testing examples validate the correctness of the method proposed.

关 键 词：电力系统 连锁故障 贝叶斯网络 预想事故分析 隐藏故障 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]