我国各地区城乡协调发展的初步评价及预测  

Exploratory Evaluation on Urban-rural Harmonious Development in Different Regions

作　　者：吴殿廷[1] 王丽华[2] 戎鑫[1] 王金岩[1] 姜晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]东北财经大学旅游与酒店管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国软科学》2007年第10期111-117,135,共8页China Soft Science

基　　金：西部重大科学计划(90102013);国家自然科学基金项目(49971001)。

摘　　要：平衡不等于协调,要跳出"平衡-不平衡"怪圈看协调;城乡是一个相互依存的地域系统,城乡协调发展的实质是该系统整体利益极大化与内部公平的统一。从协调发展内涵讨论入手,设计了基于效率-公平统一性的协调度评价模型,考察了1995-2005年各地区城乡协调发展的状态及其变化,预测了"十一五"末期的态势,提出了改进城乡协调发展的政策建议。从长期变化看,效率和公平之间存在着"效率优先阶段、效率公平兼顾阶段、公平优先阶段"三阶段目标演替规律,我国目前整体上处在"效率公平兼顾阶段"。通过不同方案的模拟发现,协调度对提高农民收入反应灵敏,启示我们要加快新农村建设步伐,大力提高农村居民的人均收入水平。Balance does not necessarily mean coordination. The limitation of ＂balance and imbalance＂ should be avoided when coordination is evaluated. In the geographical system of urban and rural areas, the two components are interdependent, therefore, coordinated urban and rural development, in essence, is the unification between the benefit maximum and internal equity of the whole system. Proceeding with the discussion on the implication of harmonious development, development evaluation model is designed based on the unity of efficiency and equity, then the current status and changes of the harmonious development between urban and rural areas from 1995 to 2005 are analyzed and the future status by the end of the eleventh five - year is projected, also simulated the change of coordination index under the different options, and finally, recommendations on the policy of improvement of urban - rural harmonious development are put forward. From a view of long - term changes, the rule of three - stage goal succession exists between efficiency and equity, namely, ＂giving priority to efficiency stage, a balance stage, giving priority to equity stage＂. At present, China is in a ＂balanced stage＂ as a whole. It is found that the coordination is sensitive to rise of the income of farmers through simulations of various projects, calling for higher pace in building the new socialist rural areas and great increase in per capita income level of rural residents.

关 键 词：城乡协调发展 效率和公平 评价 模型 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]