温斯特指数平滑法在水资源预测中的应用  

The Application of Wenshite's Exponential Smoothing In Forecasting Water Resource

作　　者：李磊 鲁斐[2] 

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]哈尔滨理工大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《江南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2007年第5期69-71,共3页Journal of Jiangnan University：Humanities & Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(批准号:04BJY026);中国博士后科学基金(批准号:2005038201);黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(批准号:10552022)

摘　　要：水资源是人们赖以生存的必需物质。水资源的短缺已经严重影响经济的增长和人们的日常生活。文章基于温斯特指数平滑法理论,对我国九大流域水资源的使用做出预测模型,可以根据历史数据准确预测九大流域下一年度的用水总量和供水总量。这样,可以为管理部门制定符合实际的水资源调配政策提供依据,并且使九大流域地区的人们更高效地利用有限的水资源。Water resource is an essential substance . The shortage of water resource has already influenced the accretion of economy and people＇s routine life. Based on Wenshite＇s Exponential Smoothing principle and combined with the use of water resource in every river basin in China, a forecasting model is proposed. This model can exactly forecast the quantity of the using water in every river basin. It is convenient next year＇s for people who can effectively use the limit water resource. Also it can provide reference for authority who establish water resource allocation mechanism according to practicality.

关 键 词：水资源 温斯特指数平滑法 预测 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]