用捕获-再捕获方法对中国不同地区监测点疟疾流行现状的评估  

Evaluation on current malaria prevalence using capture-recapture method in national sentinel surveillance points malaria

作　　者：王多全[1] 汤林华[1] 周水森[1] 顾政诚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所世界卫生组织疟疾,血吸虫病,丝虫病合作中心,上海200025

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2007年第11期1105-1107,共3页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的探讨捕获-再捕获方法(CRM)在疟疾国家监测点的应用,评估不同地区的监测点疟疾流行现状。方法采用CRM,估计不同地区监测点的疟疾发病率。结果发病率较高地区和发病率不稳定地区、发病率较低地区的估计发病率(/10万)分别为1247.30、171.50和46.10;漏报率分别为65.20%、45.32%和66.67%。结论CRM能较好的反映监测点地区疟疾流行现状。Objective To explore the feasibility of using the capture-recapture method （CRM） for national malaria sentinel surveillance program and to evaluate the malaria prevalence at those points. Methods By CRM to compare data on malaria cases reported from national sentinel surveillance program and those from the registration of case report system （CRS）. Analysis was made to express the difference regarding the number of cases in order to get the estimates and the incidence rate. Results The incidence in the relative higher epidemic area, unstable epidemic area and relative lower epidemic area were 1247.30/ 100 000,171.50/100 000 and 46.10/100 000, respectively. The rate of miss-reporting malaria cases in these areas were 65.20 %, 45.32% and 66.67% , respectively. Conclusion The situation of the malaria cases in the national sentinel surveillance points could be estimated,using the CRM.

关 键 词：疟疾 捕获-再捕获方法 监测 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]