基于灰色理论的辽宁省农业产业结构优化研究  

Study on Agriculture Industrial Structure Optimization of Liaoning Province Based on Gray System Theory

作　　者：王瑞娜[1] 唐德善[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电工程学院,南京210098

出　　处：《农机化研究》2007年第12期5-8,共4页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金：辽宁省水利厅重点基金项目(20060312)

摘　　要：应用灰色理论的关联分析法对辽宁省的农林牧渔总产值结构、粮食产量结构和肉类产量结构进行了初步分析,确定了贡献较大的因子,并进一步运用GM(1,1)模型对所研究的序列发展趋势进行模拟和预测,其结果动态地反映了辽宁省农业产业结构的发展情况,为促进农业经济可持续发展和科学决策提供了理论依据。Apply the grey incidence analysis of gray system theory,the agriculture and forestry herding fishery total production value structure, grain output structure,the meat output structure of Liaoning province were preliminarily analyzed. Then the bigger contribution factor was determined. Subsequently,the research series were simulated and predicted using the GM（1,1） model in this paper. This results reflected dynamically the development trend of Liaoning agricultural industrial structure and provided theories basis for the sustainable development of agricultural economy and scientific decision.

关 键 词：农业经济 灰色关联分析法 理论研究 GM(1  1)模型 农业产业结构 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]