基于灰色马尔可夫模型的物流园区物流量预测研究  

The Grey-markov Model for Forecasting the Logistics Quantity of the Logistics Area

作　　者：王冠奎[1] 董艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,四川成都610031

出　　处：《物流科技》2007年第2期1-4,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：物流量预测是物流园区规划和管理的一项重要内容。本文将灰色系统理论与马尔可夫链相结合,介绍了灰色模型—马尔可夫链预测物流园区物流量的预测方法,并对某物流园区未来三年的物流量进行预测,结果表明比单纯利用灰色模型进行预测更加准确可靠。　Forecasting logistics quantity is an important content in the programming and managing the logistics area.Integrating gray model and markov chain,the article introduces grey-markov model to forecast logistics quantity in the logistics area and carries on an estimate to the amount of logistics for the coming three years in some logistics areas.The result shows that this model carries on prediction more accurate and credible than the grey model.

关 键 词：物流园区 灰色模型 马尔可夫链 预测 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]