南海热带气旋频数的气候预测方法  

Climatic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over South China Sea

作　　者：梁健[1] 林永堂[1] 谢定升[1] 林镇国[1] 林少冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中心气象台,广州510080

出　　处：《气象科技》2007年第5期626-630,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：广东省气象局预报员专项项目(2006C01)资助

摘　　要：利用前期北半球500 hPa高度场格点资料、海温场(SST)格点资料,计算与后期热带气旋(TC)发生频数的相关系数,分析两个相关场显著相关区的统计特征,进一步分析其天气气候学意义和物理意义。选取若干相关系数高的格点,组成组合因子,建立二项式曲线方程,对影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋,做年、月频数预测。预测试验和检验表明,二项式曲线预测模型有较高的拟合能力,在影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋年、月频数预测中,有较好的效果。The correlation coefficients between tropical cyclone frequency and geopotential height field of 500 hPa and sea-surface temperature （SST） of the Pacific Ocean are calculated. By analyzing the statistical characteristics of those in highly significant regions, an investigation is conducted on their synoptic and climatological significance and physical characteristics. Several high correlated factors （selected and combined） are used to construct the dynamic prediction binomial equations to predict the yearly and monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea and Guangdong Province. The results show that the prediction model has high fitting ability and performs well.

关 键 词：热带气旋频数 二项式预测模型 500 hPa高度场 SST 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]