林分因子与萧氏松茎象危害程度的风险评估  

Stand Factors and Risk Assessment of Harm Extent of Hylobitelus xiaoi Zhang

作　　者：彭龙慧[1] 许永青[1] 唐艳龙[1] 温小遂[2] 王丽娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学园林与艺术学院,江西南昌330045 [2]江西省森林病虫害防治站,江西南昌330077

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2007年第5期746-750,共5页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：国家林业局重点课题资助项目(2001-22);江西省科委攻关项目

摘　　要：在江西44个湿地松林区设立调查点,对影响萧氏松茎象发生的16个林分因子进行调查,并应用逐步回归方法进行分析。结果表明,萧氏松茎象危害程度(y)与林下植被盖度(X10)和枯腐层厚度(X17)呈显著正相关。依此,建立多元回归模型:y=-0.071 2+0.496 7X10+0.016 8X17。经检验,该模型正判率达80%。因此,可用该模型对萧氏松茎象危害程度进行风险评估。44 plots were set up in different slash pine plantations in 7 counties in Jiangxi Province, 16 stand factors affecting the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi Zhang were surveyed in the study. The results showed that the undergrowth cover and the thickness of rotten branch and fallen leaves were two significant factors selected through stepwise regression analysis, and a direct correlation exits between the two factors and the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi. Using the two key factors, a multiphase linear regression model was made：y=-0.071 2＋0.496 7X10＋0.016 8X17. The accuracy of the risk analysis is 80%. Therefore applying the multiphase linear regression model, the risk analysis of the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi is feasible.

关 键 词：萧氏松茎象 林分因子 风险评估 湿地松 

分 类 号：S763.38[农业科学—森林保护学]