基于Probit模型的上市公司财务失败实证研究  

Financial Failure of Listed Companies: A Probit Model Empirical Analysis

作　　者：鲜文铎[1] 金延华[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院,四川成都610071 [2]交通银行太原分行,山西太原030010

出　　处：《贵州财经学院学报》2007年第6期53-57,共5页Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：以2000-2004年中国A股上市公司的财务指标为变量,建立财务失败预警分析的Probit模型。经过对20个财务指标的逐步筛选,实证结果发现,总资产净利率、资产负债率和应收账款周转率对上市公司财务失败具有显著的预测作用;模型的总体预测准确率为86.7%。此外,对变量的边际影响及误判成本问题也进行了分析。Using as variables financial indicators of A-share listed companies in China for 2002 -2004, this paper establishes a probit model for financial failure forecasting. Through step-by-step selection of 20 financial indicators, it is found that net interest rate of total assets, assets-liabilities ratio, and accounts receivables turnover are effective predictors of finan cial failure at listed companies; overall, the model has an accuracy rate of 86.7% in prediction. Also analyzed are marginal effect of variables and misclassification costs.

关 键 词：财务失败 PROBIT模型 预警 

分 类 号：F234[经济管理—会计学]