基于VAR模型的我国经济增长需求影响因素分析  

Analysis of demand influence factors of China's economic growth based on VAR Model

作　　者：吴诣民[1] 李碧生[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（西部论坛）》2007年第5期40-44,共5页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:West Forum

摘　　要：利用VAR模型从需求角度分析投资、消费、进口、出口对我国国内生产总值的动态影响,结果表明:最终消费和资本形成是共同决定我国经济增长的Granger原因;投资具有长期平均负弹性效应;出口在前4年有正的产出弹性,后5年表现负弹性,而进口一直表现负弹性。因此,要保证我国经济的高速稳定增长,应走高水平投资加消费带动型发展道路,并提高自我创新能力,改善进出口产品结构。VAR Model is used to analyze the dynamic influence of investment, consumption, import and export on China＇ s gross domestic production from the angle of demand. The results show that both final consumption and capital formation are the Granger reason to determine China＇ s economic growth, that investment has long-term negative elastic effect, that the export had positive output elasticity in the former four years but has negative elasticity in the latter five years and that import has negative elasticity all the time. As a result, in order to ensure rapidly stable economic growth of China, China should stick to high-level investment and consumptiondriving development direction, improve self-innovation ability and improve import and export products structure.

关 键 词：VAR模型 需求 投资 消费 进口 出口 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224