用水化资料对南黄海6.1级地震的预测  

FORECASTING YELLOW SOUTH SEA EARTHQUAKE OF M s 6.1 USING HYDROCHEMICAL DATA

作　　者：唐振芳[1] 徐玉华[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震分析预报中心

出　　处：《地震学刊》1997年第2期46-49,53,共5页Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：根据区域水氡平均年离散度变化及应用“地下流体预报方法ＳＨＥＰ软件”，对水化资料和一些Ｒｎ，Ｃｌ－，Ｃａ２＋单项异常进行综合分析，于１９９６年１０月提出：从１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年下半年，在南长带海域（尤其是东经１２１°±１°，北纬３３°±１°的区域）有发生Ｍｓ６．０级左右地震的可能，要特别注意１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年上半年（信度ＣＦ＝０．６）。本次南黄海６．The hydrochemical data and single term anomalies of Rn, Cl and Ca 2+ are analysed and synthesized using the variation of annual average discreteness of regional water radon, and the software SHEP of underground fluid forecasting method. In Oct.1996, it was predicted that a earthquake of M s 6.1 or so may occur in the Sea area of Chang Nan earthquake zone from lower decade of october, 1996 to end of 1997, specially to June, 1997, in which credibihty is 0 6 . As a result the South Yellow Sea earthquake of M s 6.1 occurred on Nov.9, 1996.

关 键 词：地下水 水化学测量 氡异常 地震预报 南黄海 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]