极大熵谱在径流时间序列周期分析中的应用  

The Application of Maximum Entropy Spectrum in the Periodic Analysis of Runoff Time Serial

作　　者：赵雪花[1] 黄强[2] 吴建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]西安理工大学水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《太原理工大学学报》2007年第6期540-542,550,共4页Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology

基　　金：山西省青年科技研究基金资助项目(2007021025);山西省自然科学基金资助项目(2006011059)

摘　　要：针对年径流序列存在多年变化周期,但径流时间序列变化受诸多因素影响,存在着多种不确定性的情况,笔者采用极大熵谱分析来提取径流时间序列的周期成分,对黄河上游贵德站年径流时间序列进行周期分析,得出贵德站具有12.5,5.9,4和3年的主周期。结果证明该方法可行,同时其结论为研究径流预测提供了科学的依据。This paper applies maximum entropy spectrum analysis to extract periodic component of runoff time serial, the analysis and calculation are conducted in combination with a real example of annual runoff series at the Guide station in the upper of Yellow River, and the result shows that annual runoff has 12.5, 5.9, 4 and 3 years significant periods at the Guide station. The conclusion illustrates the feasibility of this method and provides scientific data for runoff forecasting.

关 键 词：极大熵 波谱分析 年径流 不确定性 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]