价格变化率对城市车用天然气供需平衡影响的仿真分析  

Simulation Analysis of Gas Station and Taxi Running State to Supply and Demand Balance on Vehicle-used Natural Gas in City

作　　者：孙静春[1] 席酉民[1] 王建伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程》2007年第9期42-48,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(G0222208)

摘　　要：在城市燃气汽车发展的过程中,价格变化率是影响出租车营运者以及政府燃气汽车扶持政策的主要影响因素。车用油、气的价格变化率有正反两个方向,它们都会影响燃气的供需均衡。本文通过构建供给需求量模型,以西安市出租车司机的调研数据为基础进行模拟仿真。主要分析了油、气的价格变化率对供给需求量的影响,以及供需均衡的变化规律。分析结果表明,在现有的出租车市场规模条件下,同时提升油价与气价,均衡概率曲线的宽度逐渐增加,供给需求均衡对油、气价格变化率的敏感性逐渐降低,供给需求均衡越来越容易维持。同时降低油价与气价,均衡概率曲线的宽度逐渐减少,供给需求均衡对油、气价格变化率的敏感性逐渐增高,供给需求均衡越来越难于维持。In the course of the development of gas-fueled taxies, the behavior the changing ratio of gasoline and gas are the key factors that have influence on taxi operators and the support policies by government administrators. There are positive and negative directions for the movement of price changing ratio of gasoline and vehicle-used gas, and both of them have important influence on the equilibrium of supply and demand. The supply and demand simulation model is structured based on the investigation and research data of taxi drivers in Xi＇an. The impact from changing ratio of gasoline and vehicle-used gas on the supply and demand are shown, especially the rules of the movement of equilibrium are mainly analyzed.

关 键 词：能源经济学 供给需求均衡 管理系统仿真 车用天然气 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]