福建省台湾入境游客市场预测模型分析  

Analysis of Forecasting Models Using in Taiwan Overseas Tourists in Fujian Province

作　　者：王琦[1] 高德兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学旅游学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2007年第12期1143-1145,共3页Resource Development & Market

摘　　要：随着海峡两岸旅游区的发展,对台湾旅游市场进行预测可以更好地帮助福建省制定对台旅游发展战略和市场开发模式。通过对目前较为实用的两种预测模式——回归分析和灰色预测进行分析比较得出指数模型在游客预测中的优越性,从而得出相应的预测模型。对未来几年游客量进行预测,从定量分析的角度对福建省开展对台旅游提出依据。With the development of tourism area west the Taiwan and Fujian, forecasting the tourist marketing of Taiwan in Fujian Province could help them make the tourism developing strategy and the tourism exploiting pattern. This paper by comparing the most useful forecasting models- predicable model of GM（ 1,1 ） and regression predicable model and educing the superiority of exponential model, finally achieved the relevant forecasting model sand used these models to forecast the future amount of Taiwan overseas tourists which support the basement of developing Taiwan tourism in Fujian.

关 键 词：台湾入境游客 统计分析 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]