体育用品出口贸易对我国经济增长贡献程度的实证研究  

Contribution Degree of Sporting Goods Export Trade to Economy Growth in China

作　　者：陈颇[1] 贾清秀[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学体育学院,重庆400715 [2]安阳师范学院体育学院,安阳455003

出　　处：《天津体育学院学报》2007年第6期536-540,共5页Journal of Tianjin University of Sport

摘　　要：以我国体育用品出口与国内生产总值(GDP)月度数据为研究对象,运用相关分析、协整技术分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析及向量误差修正模型等研究方法对其进行实证分析。结果表明,我国体育用品出口与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡稳定关系,体育用品出口对经济增长的弹性较小,体育用品出口每增加1个百分点,国内生产总值增长将提高0.002 155 34个百分点。不存在体育用品出口到我国经济增长(或经济增长到体育用品出口)的单向格兰杰因果关系,体育用品出口的变动不是我国经济增长变动的主要原因。而我国经济的快速增长对体育用品出口的影响也有限。体育用品出口贸易对经济增长具有正向效益,但长、短期效应均不明显,我国经济的快速增长也并未对体育用品出口贸易产生长、短期效应。This article analyzed the monthly data of sporting goods exportation and GDP in China, using the correlation analysis, the association entire technology analysis, the Grainger causal relation examination, the pulse response function analysis and research technique and vector error correction model has carried on the real diagnosis analysis. The result indicated that sporting goods exportation and the economy grow has the long-term equilibrium stable relations, the role of the sporting goods exportation to the economy grows is smaller, when the sporting goods exportation increased a percentage point, GDP enhanced 0.00215534 percent. It does not have Grainger causal relation between the sporting goods export and economy grow, the change of the sporting goods exportation is not main reason of economy growth change, and the fast economy growth is also limited due to the sporting goods exportation. The sporting goods export trade has the benefit to the economical growth, but both the long-term and the short-term effect are not obvious, the fast economy growth also does not produce the growth and the short-term effect to the sporting goods export trade.

关 键 词：体育用品出口 经济增长 贡献程度 实证研究 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]