中国国际收支失衡与战略性政策调节研究  

The Imbalance of Balance of Payments of China and the Strategic Policy Adjustment

作　　者：焦武[1] 许少强[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2007年第11期94-100,共7页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：本论文是2005年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目<人民币均衡汇率研究>(项目批准号:Q5JZD000127)的阶段成果之一。

摘　　要：本文主要通过对1985—2006年中国国际收支及相关数据的深入分析,发现以加工贸易为主的对外贸易特征和相应带来的规模越来越大的FDI流入;中国长期存在储蓄与投资矛盾,造成储蓄持续大于投资,这些是使国际收支长期保持双顺差失衡现象的根本原因。它实际上是在国际分工深化、产业转移的大背景下,折射出中国内部经济结构的失衡,因此国际收支失衡是结构性的。文章也分析了中国国际收支失衡对经济产生的负向冲击问题,提出了多项应对策略以及一种可行的政策搭配方案。This paper profoundly analyzes balance of payments(BP)of China with relative data in 1985—2006.The findings are as follows:Processing Trade,the main pattern of China foreign trade,subsequently brings about FDI inflow in larger and larger scale;In China,there has been a long contradiction between saving and invest- ment which resulted in persistently larger saving than investment in either terms of absolute amount or in per- cent to GDP.These are fundamental causes of twin-surplus in China.It actually reflects inner imbalance of e- conomic structure under the background of intensive international specialization and industrial upgrading and transfer.Therefore,the BP imbalance in China is a structural problem.This paper also analyzes the negative impact on China because of BP imbalance and proposes several counterbalance policies and a kind of feasible policy-matching approach.

关 键 词：国际收支 加工贸易 储蓄与投资 结构性失衡 战略调整 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.6