中国增汇型气候保护政策实施对经济的影响  

Effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China's economy

作　　者：吴静[1] 王铮[1] 吴兵[1] 郑一萍[1] 黎华群[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]乔治梅森大学公共政策学院,弗吉尼亚22030

出　　处：《生态学报》2007年第11期4815-4823,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程资助项目(KZCX2-YW-305-4);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40371007)~~

摘　　要：系统地给出了中国实施增汇型CO2减排政策对宏观经济影响的模拟结果,所采用的模拟系统包括基于Pizer,Demeter,Zwaan工作发展的中国气候保护决策支持系统和中国经济可计算一般均衡(CGE)系统。研究结果表明,增汇型气候保护政策较其他单一的气候保护政策更有利于国家经济安全;虽然增汇型气候保护政策在短期内会对国家GDP产出造成影响,但从长远角度看,增汇型气候保护将带动经济的发展,是一项值得推广的减排政策。同时,发现中国实行每年增加4%的碳汇和实施4%能源替代以减少CO2排放控制率,辅助于0.2%的生产型CO2排放控制率,如果能够促进世界其它地区到2050年减排1990年的10%的CO,是一个合适的方案。This paper simulates the effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China＇s economy. Two macro model systems were adopted, which are the decision support system of climate protection in China and the Computable General Equilibrium （ CGE ） model of Chinese economy. The first scheme is a macroeconomic model combined with the dynamic of climate system and also the model of endogenous technology change. The second framework integrates the component of climate protection into the CGE model capable of modelling the interactivity of China＇s 17 economic sectors. Results from the first model system showed that the policy of increasing carbon sinks was favourable in terms of maintaining the national economic stability, compared with other climate protection policies such as the approaches of alternative energy and controlling the level of production. Although the climate protection policy by expanding carbon sinks would negatively affect economic growth in the short run, the policy approach would enhance the energy of China＇s economy in the long term. This paper suggests that increasing carbon sinks should be a recommendable policy. The result from the second model indicated that the policy of increasing carbon sinks would make negative influence on GDP growth buthouseholds would have more comfortable living conditions. The CGE framework also points out some notable influence of this climate protection policy.

关 键 词：CO2减排 增汇 政策模拟 气候保护 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]