基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法  

A mathematical model for potential ecological risk assessment of sediments based on blind number theory

作　　者：李如忠[1] 洪天求[1] 贾志海[1] 刘路[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《生态环境》2007年第5期1346-1352,共7页Ecology and Environmnet

基　　金：安徽省"十一五"科技攻关计划重点项目(07010302165);安徽省科技攻关计划项目(07020303063);安徽省自然科学基金项目(050450303)

摘　　要：基于生态风险评价系统中多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将盲数理论应用于水体沉积物潜在生态风险的评价研究。在将Hakanson潜在生态风险指数模型参数定义为盲参数的基础上,建立了沉积物潜在生态风险评价的盲数模型,并提出了污染程度和潜在生态风险等级识别盲数可靠性计算模型。根据上述盲数模型,不仅可以得到沉积物污染程度和潜在生态风险的可能取值区间,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度水平,进而定量计算待评价对象隶属于各评价等级的主观可能性大小。作为案例,将上述模型应用于巢湖十五里河河口沉积物中重金属潜在生态风险评价的研究。在得到沉积物中单个重金属污染物(Hg,Cd,Pb,Cu,Cr)隶属于污染程度各等级和潜在生态风险各等级可信度水平的基础上,得出十五里河河口处于较高生态风险水平的结论,相应的可信度为0.626。实例研究表明,以盲数理论评价沉积物的潜在生态风险,理论上可行,评价结论可信。Based on the characteristics that several kinds of uncertainties may occur simultaneously in each evaluated system, blind number theory in unascertained mathematics was utilized to evaluate the potential ecological risk of sediments in the waters. By defining the blind number parameters, a new potential ecological risk assessment model and a reliability model with blind numbers were proposed to identify the pollution level and potential ecological risk of pollutants （heavy metals, for example） in the sediments. According to above new models, not only possible interval values of pollution level and potential ecological risk but also their corresponding faith degrees can be obtained for pollutants in the sediments. Thus, the reliability of pollutants subordinating to the pollution extents and the ecological risk standards can be worked out. As a case, those blind models established upward were applied for the potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in the sediments in the estuary of Shiwuli River, pouring into Chaohu Lake. On the basis of computing the reliabilities of each heavy metal （Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr ） subordinating to the pollution levels and the potential ecological risk standards, such a conclusion was made that the potential ecological risk in Shiwuli River estuary was rather high, with the faith degree 0.626. Study result shows the developed blind models efficient and reliable both in theory and in practice.

关 键 词：潜在生态风险 沉积物 盲数 可信度 十五里河 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]