中国1996年～2005年能源生态足迹与效率动态测度与分析  

Dynamic Measurement of Ecological Footprint of Energy Resources and Its Economic Efficiency in Last Ten Years,China

作　　者：李智[1] 鞠美庭[1] 刘伟[1] 邵超峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《资源科学》2007年第6期54-60,共7页Resources Science

摘　　要：本文从探求中国能源可持续消费出发,运用生态足迹模型,重点将中国近10年化石能源消费的生态足迹进行了时间序列测度,并将其动态特征融入模型中,进行能源足迹产值、强度以及其带来的生态压力分析,在此基础上进行横向和纵向对比,提出中国未来能源可持续发展的途径。分析表明:10年间,煤炭的足迹占据主要地位,1996年占人均总能源足迹的83.4%(0.301 hm2/人),到2005年占77.5%(0.418 hm2/人),整体上呈下降趋势;生产耗能足迹占有很大的比例,从1996年的83.30%(0.30hm2/人)到2005年的85.59%(0.450 hm2/人)整体上呈上升趋势,生活耗能的足迹所占比例则呈整体下降趋势,从1996年的12.75%(0.046 hm2/人)到2005年的10.48%(0.055hm2/人);自1996年起,能源足迹产值呈增加趋势,到2005年为0.33×104美元/hm2,比1996年的0.19×104美元/hm2增加0.14×104美元/hm2,能源足迹强度1996年最高为5.15 hm2/×104美元,最低为2005年3.07 hm2/×104美元;能源足迹对生态系统的压力自1996年到1999年呈下降趋势,1996年压力指数为0.84,到1999年为0.63,从2000年开始便逐渐增加,到2004年超过1,2005年达到1.20。In this paper, the energy consumption in China from 1996 to 2005 was investigated using ecological footprint （EF）. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of energy utilization in China is analyzed, and the value of energy footprint, the energy footprint intensity and the ecological pressure intensity of energy ecological footprint is also caculated. At last, we draw conclusion on development trend of energy consumption in China and give available ways for sustainable energy policies in the future. The results show that ecological footprint （EF） of coal consumption is dominant, which occupying 83.30% of the total in 1996, and 77.5% in 2005, with a trend of decrease. The EF of energy consumption for production also occupied a large proportion of the total, which was 83.30% in 1996, and 85.59% in 2005, with the trend of increase. As for the EF of energy consumption for daily life, the proportion decreased, 12.75% in 1996 and 10.48% in 2005. The value of EF of energy increases from 0.19 × 10^4 dollars/ha in 1996 to 0.33 × 10^4 dollars/ha in 2005. The intensity of ecological pressure of EEF decreases and the pressure index was 0.84 in 1996 and 0. 63 in 1999. But it has increased continually since 2000, and reached 1.20 in 2005. These results indicate that the total EEF per capital is increasing continually along with the fast economic development. The EEF for production occupies large percentage of the total EEF, which is above 80%. The EEF of coal consumption is declining generally, and clean energy has been used with considerable scale. The value of EEF is increasing; the intensity of ecological footprint of energy is reducing gradually. Although the efficiency of energy utilization has been enhanced and energy structure has been improved, the EEF has heavy pressure on ecological environment. Another fact is that, although the intensity of EEF presents the tendency of decline, increased pollutant discharge will lead to enormous economic and environmental cost.

关 键 词：能源消费 生态足迹 能源足迹产值 生态压力 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]