鄱阳湖退田还湖区避洪农业模式的探讨  

Research on the patterns of flood avoiding agriculture in wetland restoration area in Lake Poyang

作　　者：林永钦[1] 傅春[1] 危鼎[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学管理科学与工程系,南昌330031 [2]河海大学土木学院,南京210098

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2007年第6期670-676,共7页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(40361003)项目.

摘　　要：以洪灾风险为主要风险确定了鄱阳湖退田还湖区内各种避洪农业模式的风险度量指标,并依此对各种可能模式的效益与风险作了分析.在此基础上,以收益最大化和风险最小化为目标函数,建立了退田还湖区综合避洪农业模式的多目标优化模型,采用加权法求出非劣解,并通过收益—风险的综合分析,为退田还湖区避洪农业发展的风险决策提供客观依据.Based on hydrological risk, the risk measurement indicators for various flood avoiding agricultural patterns are introduced in wetland restoration area in Lake Poyang. According to the values of these indicators, the benefit and risk of various flood avoiding agricultural patterns are analyzed. And then using benefit maximization and risk minimization as objective functions, a multiobjective planning model of integrated flood avoiding economic patterns is constructed. Several typical noninferior solutions to the model are generated by applying weighting meth- od. The tradeoff analysis of benefit and risk for different noninferior solutions, which indicates that planting vegeta- ble is a high benefit and low risk pattern but surface aquaculture is a high benefit and risk pattern, may provide ob- jective foundation for risk decision making of flood avoiding agriculture in the wetland restoration area.

关 键 词：退田还湖区 避洪农业模式 收益一风险分析 多目标优化 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：S-0[农业科学]