分布式水文模型结合雷达测雨用于三峡区间的洪水预报  

Distributed Hydrological Model Combining with Radar Rainfall Data for Regional Flood Forecast of Three Gorges

作　　者：许继军[1] 杨大文[2] 蔡治国[3] 

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程重点实验室,北京100084 [3]长江三峡工程开发总公司,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2007年第6期42-48,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：水利部948项目(200760);长江科学院公益性科研院所基金项目(YWF0713/ZY05)

摘　　要：长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库防洪安全和运行调度的影响不容忽视。依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的分布式水文模型来模拟区间洪水过程,以尽量减小洪水预报中的不确定性。研究表明,降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源,尤其是在雨量站稀疏的山区,雨量站观测的降雨信息难以充分表征降雨空间变化。为此,进一步尝试利用雷达测雨数据作为分布式水文模型的输入,通过对2个小流域的示例研究,结果表明雷达测雨能捕获降雨的空间分布,它与分布式水文模型相结合,是提高洪水预报精度的有效途径之一。The regional floods occurring in the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River due to rainstorm have most important influence on the safety and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. For reducing the uncertainty of floods forecast as much as possible, a distributed hydrological model based on the characteristics of the catchment geomorphology has been developed to simulate regional floods processes. It is found that the inadequate information of rainfall from rain gauges is a dominant factor which brings about great uncertainty for flood forecast, particularly in the mountainous area where the rainfall distribution greatly varies in space. The paper further tries to employ the radar rainfall data obtained from rain gauges as the input of the model. The results of case studies in two small catchments of Three Gorges region show that the distributed hydrological model combining with radar rainfall data is a better approach to improve the accuracy of flood forecast.

关 键 词：三峡水库 洪水预报 分布式水文模型 雷达测雨 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]