高速公路运输选择与需求预测的效用理论模型  

Utility Theory Model of Freeway Transport Options and Demand Forecast

作　　者：杨云峰[1] 杨琦[2] 周伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2007年第6期122-126,共5页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：陕西省交通科技项目(06-03R)

摘　　要：为了把握高速公路的运输需求,引入效用理论对高速公路的运输需求预测进行了探索。在阐述效用理论的基础上,通过分析运输次数、发生时间等效用影响因素,引入速度、时间等路线服务水平和社会经济属性向量作为模型参数,构建了高速公路运输服务需求函数,进而建立高速公路运输需求预测模型。研究表明:通过改进效用函数,引入新的效用参数,能客观地描述高速公路运输选择行为,为高速公路运输需求预测提供借鉴。In order to grasp the freeway transport demand, introducing the utility theory into the freeway transport demand projections, authors probed freeway transport demand forecast. Based on the analysis of utility theory, the effective factors, such as number of transport, the time of its occurrence and so on were analyzed, and the speed, time, line service levels and social economy attributes were introduced as vectors into the model. Then, a freeway transport service demand function was built, thus a freeway transport demand forecast model was built. Research shows that through the improved utility function and introducing new utility parameters, it can describe the acts of freeway transport options objectively, and is useful for the freeway transport demand forecast.

关 键 词：公路运输经济 高速公路 效用理论 运输需求预测 运输选择 

分 类 号：F540[经济管理—产业经济]