河南省冬小麦气候干旱风险评估  

Risk assessment of climatic drought for winter wheat in Henan

作　　者：刘荣花[1] 王友贺[1] 朱自玺[1] 方文松[1] 马志红[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象科学研究所,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2007年第6期1-4,共4页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目"冬小麦干旱评估业务服务系统"(CMATG2005M37);国家"十五"科技攻关项目"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究"(2004BA509B14)

摘　　要：冬小麦生育期内降水亏缺,不能满足作物的需要,是形成冬小麦气候干旱的首要条件。本文从自然降水角度,分析了河南省干旱发生的强度、概率和对冬小麦产量的影响,构建了冬小麦气候干旱风险模型。在此基础上,对河南冬小麦干旱风险进行了评估、分区。Insufficient supply of precipitation in the growing stage is the major factor resulting in drought for winter wheat. Based on natural precipitation, the intensity and frequency of drought and its influence on yield of winter wheat were analyzed. The risk assessment model of climatic drought was established. By means of the model, risk assessment and regionalization of drought for winter wheat in Henan Province were completed. It provides an important basis for fighting drought, decreasing loss and adjusting agricultural structure.

关 键 词：冬小麦 气候干旱 风险评估 模型 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]