中国上市公司利润操纵的行为特质：基于Benford律的研究  

Cultural Characteristics of Earning Data Manipulation of Chinese Listed Companies:An Investigation based on the Benford's Law

作　　者：赵莹[1] 韩立岩[1] 李惠敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,100083

出　　处：《审计研究》2007年第6期89-94,88,共7页Auditing Research

摘　　要：本文运用Benford律侦测了中国A股市场ST公司与非ST公司对报告利润的人为操纵状况,发现Benford律侦测法能够侦测到一般方法无法侦测到的轻微数据操纵行为和操纵者某些独特的行为文化特质。样本公司在利润操纵中体现出独特的"好事成双"的中国式文化情结,对偶数具有特有的偏好。数字"5"的运用也颇具中国特色。而几个最大数字尤其是"9"是最受利润操纵者关注的。运用扩展的Jones模型和对违规样本所进行的稳健性测试,进一步证实Benford律侦测法是一种有效而独特的利润操纵侦测工具。Based on the Benford＇s law＇s theory, we detect the distribution of first significant digits （FSD） of earnings reported by the Chinese listed ST and Non-ST companies. We find an interesting phenomenon. people in earnings manipulation prefer much even numbers to odd numbers. That is very Chinese. In the positive integral number of nine, the most large three numbers especially the number ＂9＂ are manipulated most frequently. As a contrast, we use method of Modified Jones Model to detect the possible manipulation in the same sample, its sensitivity is weaker than the method of Benford＇s law. To avoid to possible sample selection bias, we do another tests, for rule--violated companies and Non rule--violated companies. The results also support that the method of Benford＇s law is one of the useful tools in human data detection.

关 键 词：Benford律 利润操纵 Jones模型 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F275