集合预报及其在中期天气预报中的应用  

The Preliminary Exploration for the Influence of General Circulation over Southern Hemisphere on Precipitation over South China during Pre Flood Season

作　　者：李小泉[1] 刘金达[1] 汪迎辉 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象》1997年第8期3-9,共7页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：作者概述了集合预报的基本概念，集合预报在中期天气预报中的意义与作用，现有的主要集合预报产品以及集合预报在美国国家气象中心和欧洲中期天气预报的业务运行。简要介绍了我国国家气象中心在动力延伸预报和集合预报方面的试验研究情况。By using the solenoid fields data of sea level pressure over Southern hemisphere,through the difference value fields and correlation analysis,the influence of general circulation of atmosphere over Southern hemisphere on precipitation over South China during pre flood season have been analyzed.The results show that the general circuation of atmosphere systems over the Southern hemisphere are basically out of phase for drought and waterlogging years,in same term or earlier stage.The influence mechanism of Australia anticyclone,Mascarene anticyclone and convective active region of South America have been preliminary analyzed.The significant fact of the anticorrelation relationship between the Australia anticyclone intensity and SW monsoon in South Sea affecting South China have been researched for the first time.

关 键 词：集合预报 集合预报产品 天气预报 中期天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]