长距离输水工程综合水毁风险的估算方法及其应用  

Method for assessing integrated failure risk due to flood in long distance water transfer project

作　　者：冯平[1] 王仲珏[1] 刘增明[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]水利部长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《水利学报》2007年第11期1388-1392,共5页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50579049);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20040056060);新世纪优秀人才计划

摘　　要：长距离输水工程沿途往往要跨越众多河系,极易受到洪水的冲击。现有的风险评价方法只能从水文要素的角度考察单个交叉建筑物的水毁风险或其综合水文风险。本文以可靠度理论为基础,提出通过计算Ditlevsen界限的方法,将求解n维分布函数的难题转化为求解二维分布函数,据此给出了串联系统引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险,解决了多维风险组合计算的问题。并以南水北调中线工程河北省北段为例,对该方法进行了应用。结果表明:南水北调中线工程河北省北段交叉建筑物系统综合水毁风险的上下界限分别为0.08052%和0.08050%,平均值为0.08051%,因水流冲刷失稳而水毁的风险是非常小的,输水安全是有保证的。The probability of failure due to flood in long distance water transfer projects is much higher than a single crossing structure, since these projects must pass through a lot of rivers and all crossing structures are arranged in serial. The traditional risk assessment method is no longer applicable in these cases. In this paper the Ditlevsen boundary is introduced to transform the solving of n-dimension distribution function into solving a two dimensional problem. On this basis, the integrated accidental risk for long distance water transfer project with crossing structures arranged in serial can be easily obtained. This method is applied to assess the risk of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in north of Hebei Province. The average integrated accidental risk calculated is 0. 08051%. Obviously, the risk of failure due to flood erosion is very low.

关 键 词：南水北调工程 串联系统 水毁风险 可靠度 

分 类 号：TV672[水利工程—水利水电工程]