行为概率的数学模型  

The Mathematical Model of Behavior Probability

作　　者：孙绍荣[1] 焦玥[1] 刘春霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2007年第11期79-86,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70471066;70271005);上海市基础研究重点项目(03JC14054);上海市重点学科项目(T0502)

摘　　要：为了研究人们在某种行为回报的普遍预期下选择该行为的概率,建立了行为概率的数学模型.该模型的输入是有关行为的期望回报,输出是相应行为的概率.在群体的情况下,行为概率可以看作是群体中相应行为者的比例.该模型用历史数据统计回归其参数,模型的结果能够反映人们在选择行为时的理性规则与认知偏差的相互影响,可为政策制定和制度设计时预测其效果提供参考.In order to reveal people＇ s selecting probabilities of certain actions under the general expectation of return, the mathematic model of behavior probability is put forward. The inputs of the model are expected returns ; the outputs of the model are behavior probabilities. In the case of colonies, the behavior probability can be regarded as the proportion of the doers of the behaviors. The parameters in the model can be calculated out from data in history. The logos rules and the warps in cognizing can be also reflected in the parameters. The model will be helpful in policy making and institution designing, which is meaningful in both of practice and theory.

关 键 词：行为 行为概率 数学模型 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]