上海市暴雨的模糊风险评价  

Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Rainstorm in Shanghai

作　　者：殷静[1] 刘曙光[1] 李志宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学水利工程系,上海200092 [2]同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海200092

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2007年第6期81-83,共3页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：暴雨或大暴雨是许多城市常见的一种自然灾害现象。采用模糊数学中的信息扩散方法,建立了用于暴雨模糊风险分析的模型,并以上海市近20年来的暴雨资料为例进行计算,计算结果证明了该模型的简便可行性,为今后上海市的暴雨灾害防治工作提供一定参考。Rainstorm or heavy rainstorm is one of the common natural disasters occurring in many cities. Information diffusion method in fuzzy mathematics is introduced and the model of fuzzy risk analysis of rainstorm is developed in this paper. Finally, realistic observed data of rainstorm in the last twenty years in Shanghai are taken as an example to compute and the results can prove the model to be simple and feasible. They may give some references to the prevention of rainstorm hazard in Shanghai.

关 键 词：暴雨 信息扩散法 模糊风险 风险水平 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]