安全生产应急预案桌面推演的设计与实施探讨  

Discussion on the Design and Implementation of Desktop Maneuver of Emergency Plan for Work Safety

作　　者：周家铭[1] 邢培育[1] 汪丽莉[1] 谢潮[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省安全生产科学研究院 [2]南京邮电大学通信与信息工程学院,南京210003

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2007年第9期39-44,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：对实战演练和桌面推演进行分析与比较;阐述桌面推演的历史沿革与演化;提出应急预案桌面推演方案框架设计要点;尤其对推演方案中事故场景设计的主要关注点,如事故发生现实可能性,事故后果危害或灾难性,场景演化过程合理性、可信性,事故发展演变多样性,事故场景典型代表性和桌面推演可实现性等都提出了见解。给出桌面推演实例,并阐述桌面推演取得实效的基本条件和保障措施,对应急预案桌面推演在技术上进一步深入发展和完善的前景进行了探讨和展望。The actual maneuvers and desktop maneuvers are analyzed and compared. Historical evolutions of desktop maneuvers are elaborately expounded. Then, the design essentials for desktop maneuvers of emergency plan are set forth. Especially for the major concerned points of accident background design such as the possibility of accident occurring, the dangerous or catastrophic consequence of accident, the rationality and creditability of scene evolution, the diversity of accident evolution, the typical representation of accident background and the realization of desktop maneuvers, many new visions are raised. Besides, a desktop maneuver example is given, which illustrates the basic conditions and safeguard mechanism of an effective desktop maneuver. Finally, further development of desktop maneuvers are technically discussed and prospected.

关 键 词：应急预案 桌面推演 方案设计 场景演化 探讨 

分 类 号：X924.3[环境科学与工程—安全科学]