以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法  

On seismological synthesis forecasting method taking Heze earthquake as a case

作　　者：张彬[1] 杨选辉[1] 陆远忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《地震》2007年第4期27-35,共9页Earthquake

基　　金：地震科学联合基金项目(104032);中国地震局地壳应力研究所所长基金(ZDJ2007-242)

摘　　要：在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区;然后利用中、强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区;最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。在地震三要素预测中,发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势,并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、印证,以便得出更可靠的预测结果。文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究,结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。Abstract. Based on the previous earthquake prediction methods, we put forward a synthetical method of earthquake prediction. First, the dynamic image （including seismogenic gap and seismogenic belt） is used to confirm potential seismic dangerous zone approximately. Then a certain seismogenic zone is determined using coulomb stress infered from moderately strong earthquakes. Finally, ARM model and growing correlation length model are applied to judge whether the seismogenic zone is changed into critical state or not. In forecasting seismic three facts, the particular advantages of typical seismographic forecasting methods is exploited; in order to gain more credible forecasting result, the small correlated method has been intercompared and verified. This article studied Heze 5. 9 earthquake, happened in 1983, using this synthetical method. The result shows that the forecasting result observed synthetical method is basically consistent to Heze earthquake.

关 键 词：地震空区 地震条带 相关长度 菏泽地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]