地下水超采区水位长趋势动态分析  

Long tendency dynamic analysis of water level in groundwater overdrafting area

作　　者：张素欣[1] 刘耀炜[2] 陆明勇[3] 张子广[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局 [2]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085 [3]中国地震应急搜救中心,北京100049

出　　处：《地震》2007年第4期51-58,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC01B02-03-04)

摘　　要：地下水多年过量开采水位持续下降,不仅在观测资料中叠加了大量的疑似地震前兆,严重地压低了来自孕震体的信息,而且使正常的地震长、中、短周期变化背景扭曲,前兆异常更加难辨。本研究采用"线性拟合去趋势方法"对水位多年观测资料进行了分析。分析结果表明,线性拟合去趋势后水位10年左右的准周期结构清楚,能有效地排除地下水超采的影响,突出正常趋势变化背景,放大潮汐信息量,便于识别地震前兆。A great deal of doubtful data that restrict the information from seismogenic body, distort the background cycles of underground water level, superimpose observation data of underground water level, and make the earthquake precursors difficult to be distin- guished. In this paper, we analyzed observation data of underground water level of many years, and removed the follow tendency by linear regression analysis. The result shows that observation data of underground water level include lO-year quasi-cycle. In this way, we can effectually remove the influence of groundwater overdraft. Secondly, we can highlight the change of the background. In addition, we can amplify tides. All of these make the earthquake precursors to be distinguished easily.

关 键 词：地下水超采区 水位10年准周期 线性回归分析 地震前兆 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]