区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价  

Regional landslide hazard warning and risk assessment

作　　者：殷坤龙[1] 陈丽霞[1] 张桂荣 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]南京市水利水电科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《地学前缘》2007年第6期85-97,共13页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40072084)

摘　　要：区域滑坡灾害预测预警是滑坡灾害研究领域的难点和热点。过去10多年来在这方面的研究主要集中在区域降雨与地质环境的结合方面。文章总结了目前国内外滑坡灾害预测预报、预警和风险管理研究现状,认为把滑坡灾害预警预报与风险管理相结合是减灾防灾的需要,也是今后该领域研究的发展趋势。文章从区域滑坡灾害空间预测、时间预警预报的角度提出了滑坡灾害预测预报的分类和理论基础,并在此基础上,利用MapGIS软件平台进行二次开发,建立了基于WebGIS的滑坡灾害信息管理系统和实时预警发布系统。以2004年"云娜"台风期间浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害预警预报为例,进行了滑坡危险性预测、人口易损性预测、经济易损性预测到风险预测的实例研究。Regional landslide hazard prediction and warning is still a difficult problem and hot topic in the research of landslide hazards. In the past decade, research was mainly focused on the analysis of the combination of rainfall and geological environment. In this paper, we summarize the current studies of landslide hazard pre diction and risk assessment, and propose that the combination of hazard prediction with risk management is not only the need for hazard prediction and prevention, but also the trend in the future. Basic theories are dis cussed from two aspects： the spatial prediction and time warning. Based on these theories, we set up a landslide hazard information management system and a real time warning information releasing system, which is developeded on MapGIS platform. Taking landslides as examples in Yongjia City, Zhejiang Province, during the period of typhoon Rananim of 2004, we have studied the spatial landslide hazard prediction, life vulnerability assessment and economic risk assessment.

关 键 词：滑坡 WEBGIS 预测预警 风险 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]