中国国际收支双顺差与货币供给动态关系:1994-2007——基于抵消系数和冲销系数模型的分析  

The Dynamic Relationship between Two Surpluses of BOP and Monetary Supply in China:1994-2007——Based on the Offset Coefficient and Sterilization Coefficient Models

作　　者：徐明东[1] 田素华[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2007年第12期4-16,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科立项课题(02JA790017)

摘　　要：文章采用1994～2007年的季度数据计量检验了基于抵消系数和冲销系数模型的中国国际收支双顺差与央行货币供给动态关系，采用递归参数方法估计了中国的动态冲销系数，并讨论了央行冲销政策工具的有效性，得出结论：自2001年以来，央行净国外资产的增加成为国内流动性过剩的绝对重要来源；2004年以来，我国央行的冲销系数发生了结构性变化，2004年前维持在一0.6左右，2004年后央行的冲销干预接近于完全冲销（-1），这在一定程度上保证了货币供给的独立性，实现了货币政策的数量目标；受限于利率尚未市场化、资本市场不发达等影响，央行票据成为冲销流动性的最重要工具，法定存款准备金率成为央行常规工具，且还具有一定的操作空间。Using the quarterly data from 1994 to 2007,our paper estimates the dynamic relationship between ＂two surpluses＂ of BOP and monetary supply based on offset and sterilization coefficient, estimates recursive dynamic sterilization coefficient and discusses the effectiveness of specific sterilizing tools. The conclusion is that, since 2001, the rapid accumulation of net foreign assets has been the most important sources of domestic excess liquidity,and before 2004 the sterilization coefficient stood around--0.6,and since 2004 the coefficient has shown the complete sterilization, which to some extent realizes the quantitative object of monetary supply. For the limitation of unmarketizing interest rate and undeveloped capital market,central bank＇s bonds have been the most important sterilizing tools and the statuary reserve ratio became regular tools. And these tools have some room for the further operation.

关 键 词：国际收支双顺差 抵消系数 冲销系数 货币供给 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易] F820[经济管理—世界经济]