塔里木盆地沙尘多发季节沙尘日数与前一年大气环流指数的关系研究  

Relations between sand-dust days and the former year atmospheric indexes in Tarim Basin

作　　者：毛炜峄[1] 谭艳梅 李锡福[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心 [2]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]青海省气象局,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2007年第6期888-895,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：新疆气象局气象科技研究课题(200704)"气候预测统计模型中因子的不稳定性分析以及集合预测方法研究";2005年度干旱气象科学研究基金项目(干旱区数值模式对比研究-8号)联合资助

摘　　要：应用塔里木盆地14站逐月的沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘日数和中国气象局国家气候中心整理发布的74类大气环流月指数资料,分析了塔里木盆地4～6月沙尘暴、4～7月扬沙、3～5月浮尘日数与前一年大气环流月指数之间的关系。沙尘日数和环流因子序列均滤去了显著线性趋势,用滑动相关法提取了31组初始因子,分别建立回归模型,然后对回归结果进行两级集合。4～6月沙尘暴、4～7月扬沙、3～5月浮尘日数的集合回归拟合序列与实测序列的相关系数分别为0.9520、0.8124、0.8897。用逐级反推法,确定了与塔里木盆地沙尘多发季节3类沙尘日数有显著统计关系的前一年的大气环流指数因子数目分别为6个、7个和8个。有显著统计关系的前期环流因子对沙尘日数的异常偏多(少)年的预测能力存在不对称性。The relationships are analyzed between the number of sand-dust days of the Tarim Basin from 14 Meteor-ological stations and all the 74 circulation indexes of the former year from the climate diagnostics and prediction Division of the National Climate Center. Thirty one sets of initial factor database by Filted Linear trend are constructed separately by sliding-correlation method and regression model, and two assembling-regression models are construc- ted by stepwise regression method. The correlation coefficient of sandstorm from April to June, blowing-sand from April to July and floating-dust from March to May are 0.952 0,0. 812 4,0. 889 7 respectively between the measured and simulated sand-dust days in Tarim Basin. There are 6,7,8 atmospheric circulation indexes respectively which have notable correlation with sandstorm, blowing-sand and floating-dust. Among those indexes, there are 3 which have notable correlation with more and fewer sandstorm days from April to June, These are Index of the strength of the India-Burma trough （ 15-20°N,80-100°E） of July to August, Index of the area of the subtropical high over Indian （65-95°E） of February to March, Index of the area of the polar vortex in the Atlantic and Europe sector（4 regions, 30°W-60°E） of April to July. There are 6 which have notable correlation with more and fewer blowing-sand days from April to June. These are the Index of the area of the subtropical high over the western Pacific （110-180°E） of June to August, Index of the area of the subtropical high over the South China Sea （100-120°E） of October to November, Index of the area of the subtropical high over the Pacific （110°E-115°W） of June to August, Index of the strength of the polar vortex in the north American（3 regions, 120-30°W） of August to October, Index of the area of the subtropical high over the eastern Pacific （175-115°W） of June, Index of the strength of the polar vortex in northern hemisphere （5 regions, 0-360°） of September to November. Ther

关 键 词：沙尘暴 扬沙 浮尘 环流指数 滑动相关 集合回归 塔里木盆地 

分 类 号：P445.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]