优化的灰色模型在核动力系统管道腐蚀速率预测中的应用  

Prediction on Corrosion Rate of Pipe in Nuclear Power System Based on Optimized Grey Theory

作　　者：陈永红[1] 张大发[1] 陈登科[1] 江玮[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学核能科学与工程系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《原子能科学技术》2007年第6期707-710,共4页Atomic Energy Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对灰色理论模型GM(1,1)预测时误差较大,提出了一种新的预测方法———优化灰色理论预测方法。并把该方法应用到核动力系统管道腐蚀速率的预测。通过与多种预测方法的实际比较证明,该方法是正确、有效的。同时,通过对管道腐蚀速率的预测,对核动力系统管道在复杂条件下的维修和保养提供了有力的依据。For the prediction of corrosion rate of pipe in nuclear power system, the prediction error from the grey theory is greater, so a new method, optimized grey theory was presented in the paper. A comparison among predicted results from present and other methods was carried out, and it is seem that optimized grey theory is correct and effective for the prediction of corrosion rate of pipe in nuclear power system, and it provides a fundamental basis for the maintenance of pipe in nuclear power system.

关 键 词：优化的灰色理论 腐蚀速率 核动力系统 预测 

分 类 号：TP301[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]