蒙特卡罗法在海上边际油田风险评估中的应用  

Application of Monte Carlo Method in the Risk Assessment of Offshore Field

作　　者：李昊[1] 孙宝江[1] 张海龙[2] 宋铁民[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学（华东）,山东东营257061 [2]中海油田服务股份有限公司,河北燕郊065201

出　　处：《中国造船》2007年第B11期708-716,共9页Shipbuilding of China

摘　　要：由于海上边际油田的开发效益受各种风险因素的影响，使得海上油田开发决策难度很大，因此科学的评估海上油田开发方案的抗风险能力，对制定合理的开发方案起着重要的作用。介绍的风险评估方法以海上边际油田风险评价数学模型为基础，能够将地质风险评估和经济风险评估有机的结合起来。根据海上油田勘探、开发、生产、销售阶段的特征，阐明选择风险因素的原则，以及确定风险因素的概率分布特征的方法，并举例说明了蒙特卡罗法评价风险的过程。研究结果对我国海上边际油田风险分析方法的发展能起到推动作用。Because of the susceptible of the offshore oilfield affected by the risk elements, the development of the offshore oilfield is very difficult. Assessing the anti-risk ability of the offshore through scientific approach takes an important role in building a reasonable plan of offshore oilfield oilfield. This paper introduces the risk assessment method based on the risk assessment mathematic model. This method can not only evaluate the geology risk but also evaluate the economic risk. According to the characters of all stages of offshore field development, this paper introduces the application of Monte-Carlo method in evaluation of economic risk of oil field in detail. On the basis of the economy feature of offshore field, this paper illustrates the definition of the distribution feature means. The results obtained by authors would promote the process of risk analysis of the offshore oilfield in our country.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗方法 风险评估 经济风险 地质风险 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]