水库洪水预报实时校正方法的选择与确定  

Selection and determination of actual time correction method for reservoir flood forecast

作　　者：张瑞勋 俞淞[2] 雒文生[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东粤电枫树坝发电有限责任公司,广东龙川517300 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《东北水利水电》2007年第12期29-32,共4页Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China

摘　　要：针对水库入库洪水过程预报中的偏差问题,应用现代随机系统理论,将现代系统理论中的实时校正技术与建立的水库洪水预报概念性水文模型相结合,探讨建立适应水库总体洪水预报方案的预报误差实时校正模型,为进一步提高水库洪水预报精度、指导水库进行科学的防洪决策提供可靠的依据。本文以枫树坝水库洪水预报实时校正方法的选择为例作一简要介绍。In the light of deviation for reservoir flood forecast, the modern actual time correction technique and the hydrological model of reservoir flood forecast is combined with modern stochastic theory, the establishement of actual time correction model of reservoir flood forecast error is discussed for provide the basis of raising flood forecast precision and flood control decision. The paper introduces the actual time correction method of reservoir flood forecast in Fengshuba reservoir.

关 键 词：洪水预报 实时校正 枫树坝水库 

分 类 号：TV697.13[水利工程—水利水电工程]