水运建设项目经济评价净现值法的缺陷及对策  

Defects and Countermeasures of Net Present Value Method in Economical Evaluation of Waterway Projects

作　　者：冒刘燕[1] 蔡平[2] 谢耀峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]江苏海事职业技术学院,江苏南京211170

出　　处：《水运工程》2007年第12期1-5,共5页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：从净现值法的基本假设出发,首先分析净现值法在水运建设项目经济评价中存在的问题,指出用净现值法无法预估项目的不确定性价值。然后提出引入实物期权对净现值法进行修正的基本方法,为水运建设项目的投资决策提供了一个崭新的决策思路。Proceeding from the basic hypothesis, some questions of the net present value method existing in the economical evaluation of the waterway projects are analyzed, and the conclusion that the net present value method can＇ t forecast the indeterminacy value is pointed out. The real option is advanced to ameliorate the net present value method, serving as a completely new way for investment decision of water transportation projects.

关 键 词：水运建设项目 净现值法 不确定性价值 实物期权 

分 类 号：F550.3[经济管理—产业经济]