合肥城市生活垃圾量的关联分析与灰色预测研究  

Study on Grey Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste in Hefei City

作　　者：褚巍[1] 孙世群[1] 吴克[2] 俞志敏[2] 金杰[2] 蔡敬民[2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥学院中德环境技术转化中心,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2007年第10期22-25,共4页Environmental Science and Management

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金(050450304);安徽省国际合作项目(05088015);合肥市科技局重点项目资助

摘　　要：基于灰色系统理论,运用灰色关联度分析法定量分析了影响合肥城市生活垃圾产量的主要相关因素;建立了合肥城市生活垃圾年产量的预测GM(1,1)模型,并对合肥市未来五年的生活垃圾产量进行了预测。预测结果显示,"十一五"期间合肥城市生活垃圾产量的年平均增长率将达8.9%左右,而到2010年合肥生活垃圾产量更是将达到81.2万吨。研究表明,所建立的模型精度较高,预测值的验证性良好,运用灰色关联度分析和模型预测方法在城市生活垃圾研究中可以发挥良好的作用。Based on the Grey System theory,the method of Correlation Degree was used to analysis the main impacting factors about yield of municipal solid waste of Hefei.Then the output in next five years was forecasted by setting up a GM（1,1）Prediction Model about yield of municipal solid waste.The forecast result showed that during the next five years,the annual average growth rate of municipal solid waste would amount to 8.9% or so,and the output of municipal solid waste would reach to 812,000 tons in 2010.The result showed this model was precise,the property and verification were good.It can be applied in the management of Hefei municipal solid waste in the future.

关 键 词：生活垃圾 灰色预测 关联分析 合肥 

分 类 号：X779.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]