原油价格屡创新高的助推因素及影响  

Why oil price surging and its possible impacts

作　　者：黄付生[1] 王蕾[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学 [2]北京城建集团

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2007年第11期1-5,共5页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：受中东局势震荡、美国冬季取暖用油增加的直接影响,国际原油价格节节攀升,屡创新高。持续的低剩余产能和美国的低石油库存以及新兴市场国家强劲的石油需求构成了国际油价高涨的基础;而国际基金受美国次级债危机影响,转投原油期货炒作则是直接推手;美元贬值以及地缘政治等因素对原油价格的推动也不容忽视。油价高涨致使能源成本不断提高,使正深陷次级债危机中的美国经济增长前景令人担忧。原油价格一路走高,也给中国经济的高增长带来很大压力。Under the direct influence of chaos in the Middle East and the increase of heating oil in the winter in the U.S., international crude oil prices continue to soar to new highs. The continual low surplus production capacity, the low oil stocks in the U.S. and the strong oil demand in the emerging market are the basis for surging oil prices, while the impact on international funds from the U.S. sub-prime loan crisis and the investment transfer to crude oil futures are the direct causes. Depreciation of the U.S. dollar and geopolitics are not to be neglected either. Surging oil prices have led to rising energy costs, creating a gloomy future for economic growth as the U.S remains mired in the sub-prime loan crisis. Surging crude oil prices also generate great pressure on the rapid growth of Chinese economy.

关 键 词：国际油价 供应 需求 库存 对冲基金 美元贬值 地缘政治 经济增长 

分 类 号：F713.35[经济管理—产业经济]