进口反倾销行为对产业价格指数影响的实证研究——以钢铁行业为例  

Empirical Study of the Effects of Anti-dumping Behaviors on Price Index In Iron and Steel Industry

作　　者：杨悦[1] 何海燕[1] 王宪良[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]东北大学秦皇岛分校,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《财贸研究》2007年第6期59-66,共8页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"反倾销政策与产业损害数据资料库系统规划研究"(70573011)资助

摘　　要：本文运用反事实的研究方法,构建了反倾销行为对产业价格指数变化影响的研究框架。应用时间序列模型和多元回归模型的组合预测模型,预测出假设不存在反倾销行为时的价格指数,运用分布滞后模型分析价格指数实际值与预测值的差额同反倾销行为的联系,从而建立起反倾销行为同价格指数之间的分析模型。以钢铁产业为例,测度了钢铁产业进口反倾销行为对价格指数的影响程度。This paper puts forward a research frame of the effects of anti-dumping behaviors on the price index of industry involved, by using contrafactual analysis. With time series model and multiple regression model, it sets up a combination forecasting model. It predicts the value of price index on the assumption that there is no antidumping behavior. With a Distributed-Lag Model of antidumping behaviors factors and difference between actual price index and predicted values, it analyzes the effects of anti-dumping behaviors on the price index of industry involved. This model is based on the availability of data and describe the effects on industry＇s price index from anti-dumping behaviors in earlier and current period. At last, it empirically studies the iron and steel industry by using the method mentioned above.

关 键 词：价格指数 反事实研究 反倾销行为 实证研究 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]