盲信息下城市水源水环境健康风险评价  

Environmental Health Risk Assessment for Water Supply Source Under Blind Information

作　　者：李如忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报》2007年第12期75-79,87,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金(050450303)

摘　　要：从环境风险评价系统多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的角度,运用盲数理论评价城市水源的环境健康风险。在定义盲参数的基础上,建立了环境健康风险评价的盲数模型。根据该模型,不仅可以得到致癌风险率的各种可能区间值,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度,以及超过给定阈值的可能性。作为案例,将该模型应用于华北某城市地下水源环境健康风险评价。结果表明,运用盲数理论评价水环境健康风险,理论上可行、计算结果可信,具有推广应用价值。Based on the characteristics that several kinds of uncertainties such as random, fuzzy, grey, unascertained, etc, may occur simultaneously or partially in one system, blind number theory in unascertained mathematics was used to denote and evaluate environmental health risk for water supply source. By defining the model parameters as blind numbers, a model with blind parameters was established for water environmental health risk assessment. According to the model, not only possible interval values of risk but also their corresponding faith degrees could be calculated. As a case, the blind model was applied to groundwater for a typical organic contamination area in northern China. Study results showed that it was feasible in theory and reliable on conclusion to apply blind number theory for environmental health risk for water supply source.

关 键 词：盲信息 盲数 环境健康风险评价 可信度 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]