我国业务天气预报发展的若干问题思考  

DISCUSSIONS ON THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE OPERATION WEATHER FORECAST

作　　者：伍荣生[1] 谈哲敏[1] 王元[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093

出　　处：《气象科学》2007年第1期112-118,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目"我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究"(编号:973:2004CB18301);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40333025;40575017);2005年博士点专项科研基金(编号:20050284035);江苏省自然科学基金项目(编号:BK2005081)共同资助

摘　　要：本文着重从我国业务天气预报的现状和国际业务化天气预报技术的发展趋势出发,探讨了业务天气预报发展目前存在问题和对于这些问题的若干思考。并强调了天气预报技术的发展必须和大气探测技术的进步和发展紧密结合,并强调了天气预报技术的发展应主观和客观预报相结合、数值和统计预报相结合。Some assessments and problems in the scientific and technological development of Chinese operational weather forecast have been discussed. From the view point of comparison between international main-stream development and Chinese current operational state in weather forecasting techniques, some demerits and merits existing in forecasting services at national and provincial levels are argued in details. Based on such necessary argument and assessment, three crucial issues are emphasized, i. e. , the development of weather forecasting should be integrated with the advanced synoptical sounding techniques, and objective weather analysis should be coalescent with subjective analysis. Moreover, the numerical weather prediction is very necessarily combined with the development of statistical method, in order to deal with chaotic nature.

关 键 词：探测 天气 业务 预报 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]