北京市民用水价变动模型及规律  

On the Mode and Law of Beijing Civil Water Price Change

作　　者：崔援民[1] 王岳森[1] 李利军[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2007年第6期115-118,共4页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(05BJY044)

摘　　要：北京地区水资源危机日益严重,民用水价调整取向是一个深受各界关注的问题.本文以北京市民用水价历史变化作为一个马尔可夫过程进行建模分析,对北京地区水价变动模式进行规律和走势进行预测,认为适度调整水价,加大水环境补偿力度是发展的必然趋势,但水价的变化不宜大起大落,应保持稳定和连续.Face to the serious issue of particular concern to problem of water shortage in Beijing province, domestic water price is an all social Sectors. In this paper, the changes in the course of their history of Beijing civil water price was studied by a Markov process, the change mode of the domestic water price of Beijing is analyzed and forecasted, the opinions that the suitable adjustments of domestic water price should be made and the water environment compensation should be redoubled are given. But the domestic water price should not change too apparent.

关 键 词：水资源管理 民用水价 马尔可夫过程 水权 

分 类 号：F726.2[经济管理—产业经济]